The Week ahead

No Breakout Yet

The economic calendar is heavier next week, but the results will be the same. The stock market is probably going to end the week right about where it ended this week. The forces of doom and boom are evenly matched and this will not change.

Inflation will look tame, fueling a mini rally based on the 50 basis points Alan Greenspan is going to give us later this month. Then the rally will be snuffed out by another warning or two, especially in the technology sector.

Sound a lot like the week behind? It is. Its ground hog day the movie in the stock market. Every week we wake up around 2200 or so, we bounce up, we fall down, we go to sleep and wake up at exactly the same place.

You would think the volatility levels in the market had fallen to zero. They have not. There is a lot of nervousness out there. There are more than a few that think the market may hit new lows. The majority view as expressed in a Wall Street Journal Article last week think the worst is over.

Nobody thinks a 30% up year for the S&P 500 is going to happen any time soon. Strange thing is I remember an article in the Journal saying the same thing last month. HEY! What is today's date? Are we going to see a ground hog today?

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Shmuel Protter
investmenttool.com